Not only is President Biden not ready for what may very well be down the road from China. The entire United States of America and the world is in for a big surprise. China is not only inclined to invade Taiwan because Joe Biden has shown weakness abroad. China is inclined to invade Taiwan because of the lack of an effective triangulation strategy by the Western world vis-a-vis Russia and China.
China and Russia are the two largest bad actors in the world, and they do not see eye to eye on many things. But in today’s world, their interests are aligned on way too many levels. That is the most dangerous situation that the world has found itself in since the end of the Cold War. Some would even argue that it is the most dangerous time since the end of World War II. China and Russia cooperating is the #1 threat to freedom and democracy today.
Russia is an aging country with a decreasing population, many nuclear missiles that are fast becoming obsolete, and a seemingly endless supply of energy. With the prospect of energy dependence on Russia decreasing over the next 5-10 years, Putin decided that time was not on his side. He decided to take over the grain of Ukraine and increase his population before it was too late and Russian power began to decrease rapidly. His plan may indeed backfire as he may have pushed his country too far with his massive call up of troops. Coupled with the brave defense of Ukraine, Putin’s internal Russian opposition may lead to his being toppled or at least not succeeding in accomplishing his goal of aggrandizing more power through the Ukraine invasion.
However, China is a whole different story. China is a world economic power that is gaining influence, control, and wealth by the day. China’s calculated support of Russia during the Ukraine invasion, as seen by the massive oil and gas purchases it made, is what allowed Russia to continue fighting. Xi Jinping was the most important observer of the not-so-crippling “crippling sanctions” that the West clamped on Russia. China knows that Russia needs her energy purchases at least 10 times more than China needs to buy the energy from Russia. So, if Russia and China continue to align their interests with each other, Western sanctions lose more than half of their bite. China can handle 6 months of so-called “crippling sanctions” better than Russia, and it can do to Taiwan what it did to Hong Kong. But of course, it will be a much more costly war if China indeed invades Taiwan. Taiwan will fight back, with even more deadliness than Ukraine did. But China has less concern about internal opposition. China has a stranglehold on it’s population and knows how to quash rebellion.
China’s formidable navy and air force should be able to subdue Taiwan within a few months. Joe Biden showed with his run away from Afghanistan policy that America will run away from nearly any fight. That is Barack Obama’s opinion of American non-exceptionalism and Biden is following Obama’s lead. Obama and much of America care more about financial handouts to poor inner city youth than they care about Chinese expansionism. They have not learned the basic lessons of World War I and World War II. When tyrants on the other side of the world build up their armies and threaten their neighbors, appeasement only whets their appetite for expansionism. The later they are confronted, the greater the cost in American lives will be. Inner city youth today will be fighting Chinese soldiers within a decade if China is not stopped.
If China attacks Taiwan in 2022 or 2023, America will soon find itself in a heated debate as to if and when to confront Chinese expansionism. In the history of modern and ancient warfare, the only way expansionist dictators have been stopped is through crippling sanctions and the willingness to fight militarily. Both do not exist in the America of today. It’s a dangerous time.