Despite the expressions of positive support by the new Secretary of State Antony Blinken on issues connected to Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, and even Iran, this appears to be just fluff.
Blinken’s role is to be the administration’s “good cop.” The key is to understand that Biden’s advisors still see Iran as the key for stabilizing the region. Their challenge is the new situation the region is now in given the success of the Abraham Accords.
The Abraham Accords not only strengthened Israel and the Arab Sunni states’ hands when it comes to taking on Iran, but it nullified the argument for the “Palestine” first approach to the two state solution and peace in the Middle East. The Biden administration will go out of its way to appear to be challenging what many in America and around feel was the Trump administration’s shining success.
With this in mind, the Biden administration will more than likely attempt to woo Iran back to the table by forcing Israel to scale back its attacks on Iranian positions in Syria.
Most analysts will be able to observe the change in the amount of attacks early on. That being said, look for two changes to Israel’s strategy. More than likely it will return to support particular moderate Kurdish groups in order to have boots on the ground, near the supply routes running through Kirkuk. Secondly, the joint base the UAE and Israel are manning on the Persian Gulf will be utilized to launch covert missions on the Iranian side of the gulf.
When it comes to the Two State solution, the UAE has already called the Abbas regime “criminals,” so the idea of Biden sitting down with him and still dealing with the UAE would seem a non-starter. More than likely, the Biden team will try to get the UAE and Bahrain to pressure Israel to sign a deal with Abbas.
Biden and company will be in for surprise when they find out that most of these Sunni Arab countries have decided quietly move forward, leaving the Abbas regime and the “Palestinian” national movement behind.