If this ceasefire is as reported, many in Israel will begin wondering what on earth is the Prime Minister thinking to have agreed to such a thing. Unlike the war with Hamas, there is widespread consensus that Israel must defeat Hezbollah, by conquering southern Lebanon and reestablishing a security zone there. With wins in Chama in Lebanon’s West and in Khiam in Lebanon’s East, the IDF was well on the way to doing that. So why agree?
To claim that Netanyahu is agreeing to a ceasefire for internal political reasons just doesn’t add up. After all, the latest Channel 14 poll found that 89 percent of those who voted for the current parties in the coalition are against such a move. Israelis want to win and ending the war when Israel was on the verge of winning makes no sense no matter how you slice it.
Adding to the anger over the potential deal are many local council leaders in the north. “Do not surrender to terrorism. Do not make this shameful agreement. This is a sad arrangement, an agreement of surrender by the Israeli government to Hezbollah, an arm of Iran,” Metula Mayor David Azoulay told Channel 13. “The threat has not been removed. We will not agree to return to the reality of October 7 in the north.” Azoulay says that 70 percent of homes in Metula have been damaged and that residents should not agree to return.
“The reconstruction will take at least two years. For as long as there is no real security here, not just a ‘sense of security,’ we will do everything to not return,” he says.
Moshav Margaliot Chairman Eitan Davidi tells Channel 12 that it is inconceivable “we will be relying on Lebanon to guarantee our safety,” referring to the fact that the agreement will not include a buffer zone secured by the IDF. “Northern residents didn’t leave their homes for over a year, just to return to having Hezbollah as neighbors,” Davidi said.
Even Benny Gantz has come out against the emerging ceasefire, writing on X the following: “The idea that we will report to the committee and only then take action is fundamentally flawed, as Hezbollah can burn our intelligence sources and move the means of warfare. It is impossible to speak in terms of a ‘temporary ceasefire.’ Withdrawing forces now will create a dynamic that will make it difficult for us, and make it easier for Hezbollah to regroup. We have paid so much — in the blood of our fighters, in the wounded, in the many days reservists have given to fighting, in budgets and armaments. The residents of the north have been evacuated for over a year, and those who live on the second line of villages close to the border are staying in bomb shelters. We must not do only half the job. We must not miss the opportunity for a strong agreement that will fundamentally change the situation in the north.”
So why would Bibi who has been able to navigate ceasefire deals with Hamas and Hezbollah for over a year finally capitulate in agreeing to a deal that stops us from finishing off Hezbollah? There is one word: Biden.
While it’s true that Biden’s team has handicapped Israel’s ability to finish off its enemies for over a year - now is different. Knowing that he is not going to be president, Biden’s team has decided to threaten Israel with a potential UN Security Council resolution forcing an end to the war if there is no ceasefire before January 20th. Essentially, the Biden team wants to kneecap Israel on the way out.
So will the ceasefire go through?
While there are a number of factions wanting to make it seem that the ceasefire is about to begin, this has the same feel as some of the preliminary ceasefire announcements with Hamas.
Already there is a huge uproar in Netanyahu’s security cabinet and not only from Minister Ben Gvir, but Ministers like Avi Ditcher from the Likud who said yesterday that he would not back the deal if it was a “copy-paste” of the UN Security Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War. “That deal prepared Hezbollah ahead of the third Lebanon war, which it opened on October 8 to help the Hamas murderers in Gaza.”
Also in Hezbollah, there is wide dissatisfaction with the deal. The friction in Hezbollah is so high it is threatening to derail the deal from the beginning. There is a brewing internal rebellion within Hezbollah’s Jihadi Council. This is supposedly led by senior figure Haj Khalil Harb and the commander of the Badr Force. Harb has labeled Hezbollah’s newest leader Sheikh Naim Qassem as weak, cowardly, and a traitor to Nasrallah’s legacy. The Badr force has claimed that its units on the front lines will continue their attacks, resistance, and operations, rejecting any truce or ceasefire.
Given all of this, the chances of this ceasefire lasting more than 24 hours – let alone 60 days as the term sheet stipulates – is extremely low.
So does Bibi want a ceasefire? Probably not, but he knows he has to make it look like he is trying and let the usual actors derail it. This has been his strategy so far and so far it has been working, which is why he is still in power and why Israel has been able to maneuver around a hostile US administration and still fight an existential war. Despite the strategy working in the past, this may be his biggest gamble yet, because if Hezbollah actually goes through with the deal, it may spell the end of Netanyahu’s career once and for all.