WhatsappThe news of the past few days is the sudden breakthrough of Syrian Rebels in the Idlib province and their ability to not only conquer Aleppo, which is Syria’s second biggest city, but now their march into Hama, tens of kilometers south.
Tonight there are also reports of a split within the Syrian military in Damascus and rumors of an attempted military coup that could see the final end of the Assad regime. All of this threatens the stability and viability of Syria as a country as the current national borders have various other players vying for control. Between the US backed SDF in the east, Turkish backed rebels in the northwest, and the Russian and Iranian backed government run by Assad as well as the Druze in the south, Syria is anything but a stable country.
The current disintegration has a direct affect on Lebanon and Israel’s ability to control the southern part of the country. Hezbollah has always relied on fresh weapons and supplies by Iran through Syria. However, with the Turkish backed Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham conquering the entire northwest and destroying Hezbollah installations on the way, Hezbollah in Lebanon has very little ability to push back on Israel. Not only that, the Iranian and Russian noose that had been taking hold around Israel is collapsing a break neck speed.
In Syria’s south, near to Israel’s border, other Jihadist backed rebels are pushing out Syrian government forces.
Here Comes Turkey
While the fall of the Shiite axis is a positive step forward for Israel and the region, the takeover of Turkish backed Jihadist forces is an ominous sign for Israel. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made it clear he wants to conquer Israel and by taking over Syria or at least large parts of the western region, he will finally have the staging ground to do so.
In order to quickly counteract the coming Turkish army and their Jihadist allies, Israel must invade east into the Syrian part of the Golan, making it into a buffer zone. Israel should make overtures to the Druze of eastern Lebanon to provide external security in exchange for allowing them autonomous freedom. This same strategy should also be done with the Druze in the As Suwayda region of southern Syria – also known as Jabal Al Druze. By creating alliances with two Druze regions close to Israel – Jerusalem will extend its ability to provide a buffer against the Sunni Jihadists.
Israel must also partner more directly with the Kurdish controlled SDF and the other Kurdish groups in north Iraq to distract Erdogan and slow him down. While Assad’s toppling is a positive outcome, Turkish control of areas near to Israel must be stopped by any means necessary.
Chaos brings new opportunities, but if the chaos is not controlled it can bring disaster to everything. If Israel plays its cards correctly, what was once Syria may give rise to friendly partners both east of the Euphrates with the Kurds and in the Syrian south with the Druze.
Israel has no time to wait and may have to make a move in the coming days and weeks. If Israel does not make a move, it very well could be dealing with NATO member Turkey and Turkish backed Jihadists on its border. If that happens, Israel will be dealing with something far worse than the Shiite crescent.
