Many people are wondering why the US has given such a free hand when it comes to Syria. The answer is that Syria is quickly being taken over - not by Israel – but by Turkey. HTS was and still is a puppet of the Erdogan regime in Turkey. This is the same Turkey that is amassing forces on its border with Syria to invade the country with the goal of wiping out the SDF, which controls the Kurdish populated northeastern area of Syria.
The US has given up on a united Syria a long time ago and appears to be angling to break it up into four or five enclaves. The central area will be controlled by Turkey’s puppets – HTS and the Allawite area overseen by Russia. However, the USA wants Turkey to be stopped from controlling the rest of Syria. This interest aligns with Israel’s goal of creating a Druze backed buffer zone in southwest Syria. This buffer zone will not only protect the Druze there, but block HTS/Turkey from pouring into Jordan as well as Israel’s Golan Heights.
As far as SDF is concerned, the US shares an interest with the Syrian Kurds in controlling the oil fields and the strategic east-west transit route between the coast and Iraq. If this would fall into Turkey’s hands, Erdogan could hold the cards in the Middle East.
While it is unlikely the USA will fight directly against Erdogan without kicking him out of NATO first, it is a real possibility that Israel will be asked to extend its security control up to the Euphrates in partnership withe USA in order to deliver advanced weapons to the SDF and keep Turkey out of the southern part of Syria.
The coming war between Turkey and the Kurds is already heating up. The Turkish backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in Syria’s north has been hitting the SDF hard, while the US is attacking the SNA from the air. Israel has also taken part in aerial attacks in strategic locations along the Euphrates.
There is a high likelihood that the brewing conflict between the regional players over Syria will continue and heat up even more under Trump as he has been clear about his feelings on Erdogan.
Expect the Trump administration to back Israel’s extended security zone in Syria in exchange for the IDF taking over the role as the main backer of the Syrian Kurds against Turkey.