As was predicted, Hezbollah along with the newly elected president of Lebanon has encouraged Shiite mobs to storm southern Lebanon, despite the IDF announcing that it was not leaving South Lebanon.
The ceasefire signed between Lebanon and Israel 60 days ago stipulated that the IDF must withdraw from southern Lebanon by January 26th as long as the Lebanese Armed Forces replaced the IDF and pushed Hezbollah north of the Litani River. While the LAF has moved into many areas of southern Lebanon, it has failed to move into all of them. Hezbollah itself is still stationed south of the Litani in strategic areas close to the Israeli border. Weapons caches are strewn across southern Lebanon, with the IDF finding more everyday.
Hezbollah’s actions today resulted in the IDF firing back at the countless Hezbollah mobs that threatened the troops. The Lebanese health ministry said 15 people had been killed, including a Lebanese soldier, and some 83 had been wounded by IDF fire in southern Lebanon since the morning. The LAF now says it will accompany the Shiite terror supporters. The Lebanese army said the following: “The army stands alongside the residents against the Israeli enemy, which refuses to honor the agreement and withdraw from Lebanese territory.”
Trump Convinced To Support Israel Staying In Lebanon
Despite initial reservations by President Trump regarding the IDF’s presence in southern Lebanon, the US administration has shifted to Israel’s position. Whether it was Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar’s conversation with Secretary of State Marco Rubio or just plain common sense, the US administration appears to be prepared to back Israel’s right to secure its border against a revived Hezbollah.
Yet, the US might not have needed much convincing when Lebanon’s own newly elected “moderate” president Josef Aoun came out in support of Hezbollah - something he promised he would not do.
“I share in the joy of the residents of southern Lebanon — the joy of the triumph of their rights. I call on them to remain calm and place their trust in the Lebanese Army. Lebanon’s sovereignty and the unity of its territories are indisputable, and I am following this matter at the highest levels to ensure your rights.” Aoun is effectively telling the Shiite mobs that they have a right to go back to the south despite the fact that his own army has failed to live up to the terms of the ceasefire. Of course pictures like the following say it all:
Given the fact that Hezbollah supporters are not being stopped at Israel’s border essentially would push a reluctant Trump to back Israel’s side of the dispute. With Israel squarely backed by the Trump administration, it is hard to see where Lebanon goes from here. After all, the Salafi regime that has taken over Western Syria has announced a blockade on Hezbollah and Iran cannot send any weapons through the airport. Either Hezbollah backs down or Israel will stay put.
Reports also say the French President Macron has urged Netanyahu to pull the IDF from southern Lebanon. For Trump that may be the clincher. The US President has never liked Macron. If he has taken the side of Hezbollah - Trump will continue to do the opposite.
All of this shows that the Lebanese government remains a powerless entity and Lebanon continues to be a failed state. While it is true, Hezbollah rev the war back up, Israel will be asked by the US finish them off once and for all. Perhaps then, Lebanon can finally get its act together and if not remain in subordination to Israel for good.