WhatsappThat’s right. Sources indicate that President Trump has refused to allow Israel to stay in southern Lebanon past this coming Sunday the 26th of January - the end of the 60 period the IDF had to ensure the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) even though the IDF continues to find Hezbollah weapons stashes and the LAF has not been able or does not want to dislodge Hezbollah from south of the Litani River as per the signed agreement.
Supposedly Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has already requested that Israel be able to stay in certain areas in southern Lebanon to continue cleaning out Shiite villages from both weapons and Hezbollah operatives a well as remain in five strategic outposts to ensure Hezbollah cannot fire cornet/ATGMs into Israeli communities.
Outgoing Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog explained to Army Radio that Israel is attempting to explain to the Trump administration’s demand that it live up to the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon/Hezbollah and withdraw from south Lebanon this coming Sunday.
It is not clear if Dermer can convince Trump that Israel needs to stay in southern Lebanon for the foreseeable future.
So what is going on? Even the Biden administration was toying with the idea of letting Israel extend its stay in southern Lebanon - why is Trump adamant that we follow the ceasefire, when Hezbollah appears ready to break the agreement?
The answer is clear. Like he did with Witkoff and the hostage deal, Trump uses personal friends, family members, and business partners to push international agreements in order to provide deals that he knows his own cabinet members and political allies would oppose. In Lebanon, its his daughter Tiffany’s father in law – Massad Boulos, a Lebanese Christian with business ties to Sleiman Frangieh, an ally of Hezbollah whom the militant group endorsed for president. Boulos is Trump’s advisor for the Middle East - a position that needs no vetting.
Bibi Has No Leverage With Trump
Netanyahu’s power base and therefore Israel power base in Washington D.C. has always been the personal relationships he has built with pro-Israel politicians. Many of these politicians have joined Trump’s team. However, Trump as mentioned above defers to personal envoys rather than politicians and cabinet members to get things done – undercutting Netanyahu’s ability to affect Middle Eastern policy in the US.
Waltz, Rubio, and Hegseth are not seen as friendly to the Lebanese position or Gaza’s “plight.” The three see Israel as needing to take control of both areas to ensure stability. This is why both Witkoff and Boulos are moving quick to steer Trump’s foreign policy in a direction that is significantly different than Mike Waltz, Marco Rubio, and Pete Hegseth would have dreamed. The three of them are not yet situated to block the unofficial push by Trump’s personal envoys and by the time they are, the policies may be a fait accompli.
All of this raises questions on what exactly does Trump want with Israel and why does he see weakening Israel as part of his strategy to bringing “peace” to the Middle East?
Ultimately, we have to understand that Trump is not our savior and he has his own agenda. It is ultimately G-D who is in charge no matter what.
