WhatsappAny way that you cut it, one of the main lessons of the 2022 midterms for Republicans will be to look to Florida. Ron DeSantis was not the anti-Trump candidate that Brian Kemp was. He was not a middle of the road candidate. He was a candidate who governed his State very well. DeSantis did well enough that he moved over at least 5% of the centrist voters into his side over the last few years. And even more important, he brought a huge wave of voters into his State during the coronavirus pandemic. People literally picked up and moved to Florida to get out of New York City, and California.
Some will argue, and they are probably correct, that DeSantis did not merely govern well and responsibly during the pandemic. He also took care of voting irregularities. Put more simply, he cut out the chance for widespread cheating in his State. Remember that this is the State that decided the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore by hundreds of votes that were disputed by both sides.
The Florida shift is much greater than the DeSantis phenomenon. The Florida shift means that in a future Presidential election, the State of Florida will probably be out of play for Democrats. The same goes for Ohio. Democrat support is largely relegated to the east and west coasts. Without Ohio, a State that nearly always picks the winner, Democrats need to win nearly the entire rest of the rust belt. That is not very easy.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are tough States to win, and even then, the Democrats will not necessarily have enough without winning Arizona and Georgia. The only very bright spot for the Democrats on election night was that they won Pennsylvania with a weak candidate. But the prospects for Democrats winning Presidential elections is looking dimmer by the day.
Republicans should focus more and more effort to document whatever cheating may be going on in Philadelphia. In Georgia, they won’t get far with Gov. Kemp. But in Philadelphia, even if they cannot control the “irregularities” without governing the State, they can limit the damage via an aggressive nationwide effort to “protect democracy.” In truth, they only need to be super aggressive in around 5-10 counties nationwide where there is a genuine debate as to the scope of cheating or non-cheating that has been taking place. That could make the whole difference. It may have in 2020. At least Donald Trump thinks so.
