WhatsappWhether there was a miscommunication between Steve Witkoff and the rest of the Trump team or just general naivety in regards to a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, what is clear is that despite what seemed like heavy pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire, it was Hamas who essentially nixed the deal.
Steve Witkoff was prepared to fly to Qatar by the end of the week to clinch the deal, but he cancelled his trip at the last second, signaling that the deal remained elusive.
So what’s stalling the deal and why did Trump think it was so close? The main sticking point appears to be Israel insistence that it remains along the perimeter inside the Gaza Strip as well as a large swath of land in Gaza’s south encompassing all of Rafah. Hamas wants Israel completely out of the Gaza Strip for the deal to go forward. Hamas leadership knows that if Israel succeeds in holding onto the southern third of Gaza, it will build an alternative military and humanitarian system there that will in turn be used to pull Gaza’s population southward – leaving Hamas open for obliteration the moment the ceasefire is over or broken.
Essentially, Hamas reads President Trump’s and Prime Minister’s offer as a trick. After all, Israel is backing the Abu Shabab militia with military and logistics support. Like I have written else where, the 60 day ceasefire is not a real ceasefire as far as Israel is concerned, but rather only between the IDF and Hamas. Using the clans backed by the IDF, Israel can wage a war against Hamas from the areas already liberated from Hamas’ control – essentially setting the stage for a Gazan civil war. Hamas would ultimately lose as the clans are being supplied weapons from Israel and Hamas is cut off.
The only way Hamas caves, is if Israel finally decides to take over the Gaza Strip completely and forms a military government. Hams would be forced to hand over the remaining hostages in exchange for free passage out of Gaza and into exile.
Will this happen? Only if Israel decides that the games being played are amounting to a dead end. After continuous IDF casualties, it appears that Netanyahu may finally make the call to conquer the entire Gaza Strip and end the war once and for all.
