Despite all the issues raised in connection with the current ceasefire Israel accepted with Lebanon, one piece of it essentially makes the ceasefire pointless and enables Israel to continue removing the Shiite occupation forces (otherwise known as Hezbollah) from southern Lebanon as soon as enough violations pile up.
The clause in the ceasefire agreement that Israel insisted on including was the ability to keep the IDF in southern Lebanon for up to 60 days to ensure the ceasefire is being implemented according to the agreement. 60 days is key, because in 60 days the Biden administration will no longer be in power and a new far more favorable Trump administration will be taking control.
Hezbollah has already used the mass of Shiite “civilians” returning back to southern Lebanon as a way of pushing southward towards the IDF positions and within the first twelve hours since the ceasefire began, the IDF was forced to fire on Hezbollah operatives that had gotten close to Israel. While that particular violation may have not been enough to end the fragile ceasefire, with enough of those, the IDF can continue to leave their forces in southern Lebanon – especially if no other mechanism for enforcement is found.
The IDF reported: “Following the directive of the political echelon, the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon took effect at 04:00 today (Wednesday), and the IDF has been operating accordingly. IDF troops are stationed at their positions in southern Lebanon.Over the past hour, the IDF identified a vehicle with several suspects in a zone prohibited for movement in Lebanese territory. IDF troops fired to prevent them from advancing, and the suspects left the area. The IAF remains ready to act across Lebanese territory and the IDF Aerial Defense Array is also in a high state of defensive readiness.”
These early violations are Hezbollah’s way of testing the IDF’s resolve. So far they have learned this is not 2006 all over again - something is far different within the Israeli national psyche.
There are many who have prematurely concluded that a ceasefire with Lebanon was a wrong move and in terms of momentum that is certainly true, but there are other forces at play and being allowed to keep the IDF in southern Lebanon into Trump’s term means that Israel can rewrite the script with the new president and probably do away with the second stage altogether, which involves the Americans. This is something that Trump will want to stay away from as he has promised not to embroil America into foreign entanglements.
Given the current rate of ceasefire violations, Israel will have an easy time explaining why it had to restart the war with Hezbollah. Now that many of the remaining operatives are walking around freely, the IDF will have no problem eliminating them when the time comes.
Yes, the ceasefire should have been shelved, but as a chess move in a broader game, it is a move that had to be played to enable the king to avoided being placed in check. As long as the IDF can remain in areas like Khiam that enable Israel to break southern Lebanon in two (separating the heavily Christian and Druze areas from the radical Shiite section) then Hezbollah remains at a disadvantage when the war restarts.