WhatsappJust over two days into the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the latter continues to rack up ceasefire violations.
According to the ceasefire, Hezbollah is supposed to lay down its arms south of the Litani and dismantle all arms depots and manufacturing sites. Already yesterday, Hezbollah operatives were attempting to breach the no-go zone set up in the Shiite area along Israel’s border and were repelled. Today Hezbollah operatives were spotted at a mid range missile factory in southern Lebanon and promptly eliminated.
Besides the attack on the rocket factory, more operatives were repelled today along with a drone, which was destroyed by an Israeli interceptor missile. Given the amount of infractions already being tracked, the chances the IDF ever leaves southern Lebanon is zero and perhaps that is the reason why the deal itself was based on a long 60 day period.
If violations continue, Israel will gain de facto military control over the Shiite areas in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces provide security to Maronite Christian enclaves. This is why some Lebanese commentators have already suggested that Israel’s presence may be permanent - especially with Trump taking over before the 60 days are up.
The Lebanese journalist Dima Sadek wrote about the current situation in Lebanon and the “victory”:
“Do those who said we won know that Israel is still inside the territory of southern Lebanon? Do they know that the Israeli tanks are in our territory? Do they know that there are villages that the residents are not allowed to enter under the direction of the Israeli army? In other words, in practice, we are under occupation. Do they know that the Israeli army arrested 4 Lebanese today? Do they know that Avichay Adraee imposed a curfew in the villages near the border? Do they know that Avichay Adraee is the governor of the border villages? How do they talk about victory? How can you think like that?”
Interestingly, the IDF map given to the Shiite populace in southern Lebanon that details where they cannot enter appears similar to the old Israeli security zone that lasted in Lebanon until 2000. This is no accident and although no one has given the IDF authorization to make a security zone, as long as Lebanese Shiites continue to violate the ceasefire, the IDF will have no reason not to create a new buffer zone there.
Some say this may have been the plan all along, but it could be that Netanyahu and his government just understands who they are dealing with and by agreeing to a ceasefire with such loopholes just allows the IDF to create what everyone thought they would and should. The only difference, Netanyahu’s government is doing this without announcing it.
