Anyone who was paying attention to the sudden ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon nearly two months ago knew that something didn’t feel right. Israel was demolishing Hezbollah and had a chance to finally take them out once and for all - so why stop?
The answer had more to do with the Biden administration than anything else. The Biden team wanted the conflict to stop, but Israel only agreed to a timeline for complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon that would stretch into Trump’s term. One of the main objectives in the ceasefire agreement is for the Lebonese Army (LAF) obligation to make sure Hezbollah moves above the Litani River and actually enforce Lebanese sovereignty in the south of the country.
The LAF is kept weak on purpose and has never taken on Hezbollah out of fear of being decimated. While the LAF has moved into certain areas, Israel has kept its forces in strategic locations in order to ensure that even if Hezbollah finds a way to get arms from Iran it cannot have line of site or the high ground facing Israel’s northern communities.
Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar claims: US confirmed that Israel will not withdraw from three controlled points in southern Lebanon
According to the newspaper, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, American envoy Hochstein and the chairman of the ceasefire supervision committee, Major General Jasper Jeffers, confirmed that Israel will continue to maintain forces at three strategic points: the Hamames area south of al-Khiam in the eastern sector, the Jabal Balat area in the central sector, and the Labbouneh area in the western sector. The article claims that the IDF will build permanent military bases at those points.
While one should not necessarily trust a Hezbollah affiliated media outlet, the report has some legs and for Israel the move with US acquiescence makes a lot security sense. The LAF will never take out Hezbollah, which would require it to start a civil war with the Shiite population in Lebanon.
The biggest challenge during the war with Hezbollah that started with the terror group attacking Israel on October 8th was the short range ATGMs. These rockets are effective against the iron dome because they fire straight. Yet, they need line of site and the high ground.
According to reports the IDF has already started building a permanent observation point in Jabal Balat. If the report is correct – the reason is clear. Jabal Balat is 741 meters high and has line of site into Israeli communities a few kilometers to its south. Jabal Balat poses a security threat to Israeli citizens as long as the Shiite presence stays on Israel’s border. Placing a permanent base there protects Israelis residents of the Galilee and gives the IDF a high point in Lebanon’s contested south.
Israel presence in key locations in southern Lebanon may be enough to take away any future threat from ATGMs. With Israel in full control of the Hermon Summit and part of Syria, it can use three areas listed to easily monitor Hezbollah movements in southern Lebanon. In a sense a permanent IDF presence in southern Lebanon reminds the Lebanese populace on the costs of Hezbollah starting a war with Israel. This sort of presence was only possible because the IDF used the ceasefire period to consolidate gains.
Under the new Trump administration, it is possible more areas will be added to the IDF to permanently control giving more security to northern Israel. It is also possible that Iran on its heels, Hezbollah may be activated one more time in order to take on Israel. In that case, Israel will take over Southern Lebanon once and for all.