WhatsappThere has been much hype connected to President Trump’s 21-point plan to end the war in Gaza. Many of the points seem to clearly favor Hamas. We can spend time going through the rationale behind each point; however, no one is asking a simple question – why is there a ceasefire deal on the table when Israel is weeks away from total victory?
According to the latest reports, the IDF has now captured half of Gaza City. Add on the fact that 850 thousand Gazans have heeded the IDF instructions to flee the city and move south and the operation is moving faster and better than expected.
President Trump appears to be pushing for a ceasefire right when Israel is on the cusp of victory. Why? The answer is simple – Trump has decided that an Israeli victory will leave the US with little or no leverage on the Jewish State. After all, like George Bush Jr. before him, Trump views Israel far more like a protectorate than an independent country. CENTCOM and the US military may enjoy having a pit bull to unleash on their enemies when they want, but like any pet, they don’t want it to stray too far. This was the same strategy Reagan used when he forced Israel to stop short of destroying the PLO in Beirut.
Ultimately, Trump appears more and more beholden to Sunni Arab interests like Qatar and Turkey than Israel. Israel has been a great tool for him to force the others to bend to the USA, but he doesn’t want to lose out on cutting deals with countries that have limitless capital, like Qatar. This is why Trump has promised to bring about an end to the war and prevent Israel from not only winning but also committed to stopping them from applying sovereignty to Judea and Samaria.
It is obvious that Netanyahu has been blindsided by Trump’s maneuver. The Prime Minister also knows that if he accepts the plan as is, without applying any sovereignty to Judea and Samaria, his government will fall, and yes, his political career will more than likely end as Likud and the religious right will hold back from backing him. New and younger politicians will run, especially veterans from the current war, and change the political map in Israel. Given this, it is hard to believe Netanyahu will accept Trump’s 21-point plan without serious changes. Expect some surprises after today’s meeting with President Trump.
The President can get what he wants from Netanyahu, but he may have to agree to back Israel’s application of sovereignty to large swaths of Judea and Samaria to get it. If he doesn’t, Netanyahu will have to decide whether he is willing to push back against President Trump or risk losing his coalition and possibly his political career.
