Professor Keidar understands the Arabs in the Middle East better than anybody else. His analysis is that the warehouse that was exploded in Lebanon had an enormous amount of fuel for missiles. But Hizbullah wants to cover it up, so they claimed that it was just a depot. But in truth, what exploded was a harbor for explosives to be used against Israel.
The Hizbullah basically controls the government of Lebanon – even though they do not have power. The Hizbullah basically shuts up the government of Lebanon via the age-old idea of pure intimidation. The Lebanese government has always been a weak government for many decades. But now, it is at one of it’s weakest moments that can be remembered.
Israel must always look for ways to encourage moderate voices in their surrounding countries. But they can never rely on them because the radical Muslim movements always stand as a threat to the stability of any leader. This is what happened at the end of the 1st Lebanon War in 1982-1983. Israel saw in Bashir Gemayel, a leader that was a moderating force that could take charge in Lebanon. But this did not last. Right after he was elected, radical factions killed him. His younger brother did not have the same kind of leadership ability. Meanwhile, Lebanon gradually became a puppet of the Iranian regime and evolved into what seems like an endless threat to the Jewish State.
This is the Middle East. Everything is different here.