WhatsappYesterday, I thanked President Trump for the latest horrible “deal” he announced with Iran.
It’s a ceasefire, not an actual deal, but it is still very bad.
But I thanked President Trump because this “deal” may accomplish something far more important than anything written on paper. It is forcing Israel and the Jewish people to confront a truth we have been avoiding for far too long: we cannot place our trust in any human leader, no matter how friendly, supportive, or powerful he may be.
Not in Biden.
Not in Trump.
Not in Netanyahu.
Only in Hashem.
Now that the dust is settling, several facts about this deal should deeply concern anyone who understands the nature of the jihadi regime in Tehran.
First, from the perspective of the Islamic Republic, this deal is already a victory.
Western leaders often measure success in terms of agreements signed, wars avoided, or diplomatic breakthroughs achieved. The jihadist regime of Iran measures success differently, just as Hamas, Hezbollah and all 1,400+ year Muslim jihadi movements.
For all jihadi Muslim groups, victory means surviving another day to continue their jihad, to continue to advance their 1,400-year-old jihadist vision of Islamic supremacy over the whole world.
That is why I cringe when I hear President Trump say that these current, fourth-generation (because the US/Israel killed the preceding three), Iranian leaders are “rational actors”.
No, they are not “rational” in the Western sense just because the previous three were killed.
They simply understand something many Western leaders do not.
They understand jihad.
They understand patience.
They understand how to tell Western diplomats exactly what they want to hear while steadily advancing their long-term jihadi objectives.
For decades, they have perfected the art of deceiving Western leaders who fail to understand the ideological and religious motivations driving their evil actions
The second troubling sign is Trump’s increasingly public criticism of Netanyahu and Israel.
Words matter in the Middle East.
Strength matters.
Weakness matters.
Perception matters.
When Trump publicly berates Israel over military actions in Beirut or signals frustration with Netanyahu, our enemies are not hearing nuanced diplomatic messaging.
They hear opportunity.
They hear daylight between Washington and Jerusalem.
They hear a signal that America will restrain Israel from doing future attacks to protect itself, empowering our jihadi enemies to continue attacking us despite the beating that they have received.
Whether that is Trump’s intention or not is irrelevant.
That is how our jihadi enemies interpret it.
The danger is that Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and every jihadist movement in the region begin believing that Israel’s deterrence has weakened because America will stop us from acting decisively.
That perception alone will cost Jewish and Israeli lives.
Then came Trump’s press conference alongside the Prime Minister of Qatar today.
That should concern every American patriot.
Qatar is not a neutral mediator.
Qatar has spent years funding forces that undermine both Israel and the United States. Al-Jazeera and Al-Jazeera+ promote daily messages turning Americans and American youth against America.
Qatar’s money flows into educational institutions, media organizations, activist networks, and Islamist movements across America.
Qatar presents itself as America’s friend while simultaneously financing many of the forces working to weaken America from within.
Yet Trump appears determined to embrace Qatar as a partner.
That is deeply troubling.
Even more troubling were his comments regarding Lebanon and Syria.
Trump suggested that Israel is not doing a sufficient job finishing off Hezbollah and implied that Syrian ISIS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Jolani, should be given the opportunity to handle the problem.
Think about how absurd that is.
Israel goes to extraordinary lengths to minimize civilian casualties while targeting terrorists.
Jolani’s jihadi forces have been massacring Syrian Christians, Alawites, Kurds, Shiites, and other minorities since the day he took over Syria.
Today, the only reason many Druze communities in southern Syria remain secure is because Israel is there to protect them from Jolani.
Israel is the only reliable force in the Middle East that protects minorities against the evil jihadi forces, whether Sunnir or Shiite.
Yet somehow, Trump wants to trust Jolani the butcher as the solution for defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon, while looking at Israel as the problem? This is bat-crazy insane.
This reflects a profound misunderstanding of the Middle East.
Israel is not the obstacle to stability.
Israel is the only stabilizing force in a Middle East filled with evil jihadi actors, that include hte jihadi Iranian regime, Jolani in Syria and Erdogan in Turkey.
Israel is the only nation consistently willing to confront jihadist forces while simultaneously protecting persecuted minorities.
The freedom-loving world has no more reliable partner in this struggle than Israel.
That is why the broader strategic implications of this ceasefire concern me.
Israel and the USA were successfully put enormous military and economic pressure on the Islamic republic of Iran.
Its proxies had been weakened.
Its deterrence had been damaged.
The regime was on the defensive.
Instead of increasing pressure, America appears to be signaling a willingness to give the regime breathing room.
The message being received throughout the region is dangerous.
The Gulf states are watching.
They see that even after Iranian aggression, America is eager to make arrangements with the Islamic jihadis of Tehran.
Their conclusion is simple: America cannot be fully relied upon.
As a result, many will seek accommodation with Iran rather than confrontation, even though Iran attacked them as well.
This deal is strengthening the very regime that should be isolated.
The only lasting solution has always been obvious.
The Islamic Republic must fall.
Not merely change leaders.
Not merely change negotiators.
Not merely replace one group of ayatollahs with another.
The Islamic regime itself must be removed from power, to be replaced by the peaceful loving Iranian people.
That is what would liberate the Iranian people.
That is what would make the region safer.
That is what would truly advance peace.
President Trump now says that regime change was never an objective of the war. Maybe that is true. But it is difficult to square that claim with the message he was sending directly to the Iranian people just months ago.
When Iranians took to the streets against the regime, Trump encouraged them:
“KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! … HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
He also warned the regime that if it violently crushed the protesters:
“The United States of America will come to their rescue.”
Those are not the words of a leader signaling that the survival of the Islamic regime is acceptable. Those are the words of a leader encouraging a population seeking freedom from its oppressors.
Which is why so many people believed that weakening and ultimately toppling the Islamic regime was, if not an explicit objective, at least a desired outcome.
Today, however, the message seems very different. Instead of supporting the removal of the regime, the focus appears to be on keeping the regime alive through another ceasefire and another diplomatic process.
Just today the Islamic regime of Iran executed two more leaders of the popular uprising, and the Trump diplomatic team is silent.
That is why many people are confused.
Because the fundamental problem was never merely Iran’s nuclear program.
The fundamental problem is the Islamic regime itself.
As long as that regime remains in power, it will continue funding terror, spreading jihadist ideology, destabilizing the Middle East, threatening Israel, oppressing its own people, and pursuing regional domination.
The Iranian people understood that.
Trump seemed to understand that.
The question now is whether Trump still does.
Yet there are also reasons for cautious optimism with this horrible deal.
Secretary Rubio and Secretary Hegseth reportedly represent a far more realistic understanding of the threat posed by Iran, and they reportedly voiced opposition to this deal.
Trump’s decision to put Vice President Vance at the forefront of defending this agreement is also politically interesting.
It suggests Trump is allowing the restraint and accommodation faction within his coalition an opportunity to prove itself.
But it may also indicate that he understands the possibility that this approach will fail.
If it succeeds, Vance receives credit.
If it fails, Trump can pivot and say he gave diplomacy every chance.
That possibility remains.
Another positive aspect of Trump’s public criticism of Netanyahu is that it reinforces something Israel desperately needs: strategic independence.
For too long, too many people have believed Israel’s strength comes from Washington.
It does not.
Israel’s strength comes from the courage of our soldiers, the resilience of our people, and the blessing of God.
If Israel must act alone, then let the world understand that Israel acts because Israel chooses to act.
Not because America permits it.
Not because America directs it.
But because the Jewish nation has both the right and the responsibility to defend itself.
Netanyahu launched the first attack on Iran without America and we will attack again, alone, if we have to.
Spiritually, however, America is entering dangerous territory.
The Bible’s message could not be clearer.
Those who bless Israel are blessed.
Those who curse Israel are cursed.
America’s extraordinary success over the last century cannot be separated from its historic support for the Jewish people and the Jewish state.
If America moves toward appeasement of the forces seeking Israel’s destruction, together with the destruction of the whole freedom-loving world, that carries consequences.
Not because Jews are special.
But because God is faithful to His promises.
If Trump continues down a path of accommodation and pressure on Israel, America will suffer for it.
Israel will suffer consequences as well.
But Israel will endure.
We always have.
On the other hand, if this ceasefire collapses, as I believe it will because Iran will never truly surrender its nuclear ambitions, and America returns to the path of confronting and ultimately helping bring down the Islamic regime, then both Israel and America will be stronger for it.
Why am I so skeptical of this deal not being implemented?
Because I do not believe for a second that the jihadi regime of Iran will ever implement the deal the way Vice President Vance has been describing it in television interviews.
Vance argues that Iran will only receive the reported $300 billion reconstruction package from the Gulf states if it fulfills its obligations, including permanently giving up any path to nuclear weapons.
That may sound reassuring on paper.
The problem is that the Islamic Republic has spent more than four decades deceiving Western governments while advancing its revolutionary agenda. Why should anyone believe that this time will be different?
The regime’s leaders view nuclear capability as essential to their long-term survival and their broader jihadist ambitions. They are not going to voluntarily surrender that objective. Not after decades of investment, sacrifice, deception, and persistence.
Which raises the real question:
If Iran is never going to fully implement the deal, what is Trump’s purpose for signing this 60-day ceasefire deal?
One possible explanation is political.
For years, Trump’s critics on the populist and conservative side have accused him of being too closely aligned with Netanyahu and Israel. By publicly creating distance between himself and Israel, criticizing Netanyahu, and pursuing diplomacy before further confrontation, Trump demonstrates to that audience that he is making decisions based on what he believes is best for America, not because he is taking orders from Israel.
That may strengthen his position heading into the midterm elections.
More importantly, it may give him greater flexibility afterward.
If Iran refuses to implement the agreement, as I fully expect it will, Trump will be able to tell the American people that he exhausted every diplomatic option. He will be able to say: “I tried negotiations. I tried restraint. I offered them a path forward. Iran rejected it.”
That would place him in a much stronger political and strategic position if he ultimately decides that renewed pressure, harsher sanctions, or even military action are necessary once again.
In that sense, while I view this ceasefire as dangerous, it will definitely not be the final chapter. It is simply be a pause before the next phase.
The real test will come when Iran once again refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
At that point, we will discover whether this was genuine appeasement or simply another move in a larger strategy.
There is another critical point that cannot be ignored.
Regardless of what Trump wants, Israel cannot allow Iran or Hezbollah to attack Israeli citizens without paying a serious price. Even if Israeli retaliation angers Trump. Even if retaliation complicates the deal. Even if retaliation gives Iran an excuse to threaten to walk away from the agreement.
Why?
Because Iran will use that leverage no matter what.
In fact, we are already seeing it.
Iranian officials are reportedly signaling that they will not implement their side of the agreement unless Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon.
Think about what that means.
The regime that spent decades building Hezbollah into a terrorist army, launching attacks against Israeli civilians, and turning southern Lebanon into a massive military base is now demanding that Israel remove the very security buffer protecting our northern communities.
That condition is a complete non-starter.
Israel did not sign this deal.
Israel is not obligated to endanger the lives of its citizens in order to help Trump achieve a diplomatic victory.
Netanyahu cannot and will not agree to withdraw from southern Lebanon under current conditions. The lessons of October 7th are simply too clear. When Israel abandons strategic territory and allows jihadist organizations to fill the vacuum, Israelis die.
Defense Minister Katz has already made clear that Israel intends to maintain its security zones, in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. That is not a negotiating position. It is a security necessity.
Which means Trump now faces a dilemma largely of his own making.
If his diplomatic team agreed to conditions requiring Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, then they agreed to a framework that directly conflicts with Israel’s most basic security requirements.
That is not Israel’s problem.
That is Washington’s problem.
Israel’s responsibility is not to protect a diplomatic process.
Israel’s responsibility is to protect Israeli lives.
If Iran chooses to walk away from the deal because Israel refuses to expose its citizens to Hezbollah attacks, then that simply confirms what many of us have been saying all along: the regime was never interested in peace. It was only interested in extracting concessions while preserving its ability to threaten Israel through its terror proxies.
No Israeli government that learned the lessons of October 7th can allow that to happen.
And no American administration should expect Israel to make those sacrifices on its behalf.
As Jews, however, our responsibility remains unchanged regardless of what President Trump decides.
We must speak honestly about the dangers of this deal.
We must support Israel’s right to defend itself, regardless of outside pressure.
We must support Netanyahu and Israel’s security establishment when they take the necessary actions to protect Israeli lives, even if those actions create friction with Washington.
We must encourage our leaders to act boldly when Jewish lives are at stake.
And most importantly, we must strengthen our faith.
Not faith in Trump.
Not faith in Netanyahu.
Not faith in military power.
Faith in Hashem.
The Jewish people are exactly where we are supposed to be.
Back in our homeland.
Back in history.
Back in the arena of nations.
And moving forward toward our destiny, guided not by human leaders, but by the God of Israel.
For decades, many Jews looked to Washington for salvation.
Perhaps one of the hidden blessings of this moment is that we are finally being forced to grow beyond that dependence.
America is important.
Alliances are important.
But our future does not depend on any president, any administration, or any foreign power.
Our future depends on our willingness to fulfill our mission as a free and sovereign nation in our ancestral homeland, trusting in the God of Israel and acting accordingly.
Am Yisrael Chai!!!
