Today is the US elections and with what many consider to be a defining election for not only America, but much of the world- especially in the Middle East. The IDF is continuing to push northward after it secured the first ridge of Lebanese villages in southern Lebanon, west of Israel’s northern panhandle.
Reports have been arriving through Lebanese channels that the IDF has been seen on the outskirts of Bint Jbeil. The reports have said that the IDF have engaged in fighting with Hezbollah there, but then pulled back. Bint Jbeil is the main seat of power for Hezbollah in the region, which lies west of Israel’s northern panhandle. It is symbolic and seen as the site of a great Hezbollah victory in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, where the IDF pulled out its troops after intense fighting and various campaigns to capture the town and the surrounding areas.
With Bint Jbeil once again in the IDF’s sites, Israel is taking it seriously, attempting to surround the strategic village from multiple sides. If the IDF can be successful in Bint Jbeil, it will not only go a long way to crushing Hezbollah’s morale but it will also collapse the regional center of Hizbullah’s activities.
Unlike the southeastern area of Lebanon just north of Israel’s Metula and Kiryat Shmona, where Shiites are seen as foreign invaders by the local Maronites, Druze, and Sunnis, the southeastern section of southern Lebanon is Shiite heavy and is also far to the south making the Litani River much harder to get to. Bint Jbeil is key to controlling the road network in order for the IDF to reach the Litani River in the west.
The current gains by Israel in southern Lebanon are happening on the backdrop of Blinken’s threat to cut off arms to Israel in a matter of days as well as a potential Kamala Harris victory in today’s election. While Trump may want peace and quiet by inauguration if he is elected, it still means Israel has 2.5 months to clear up to the Litani, establishing a new far more natural border. If Kamala is elected she will want the fighting to stop immediately - leaving Israel with a choice. Either fight and become isolated or stop fighting and die.
The choice is obvious. No matter who wins, Israel will continue to fight. However a Trump victory would allow Israel to finish the job – ultimately changing the artificial boundary that the French imposed – little more than a hundred years ago, to something far more defensible - potentially bringing decades of peace and security to both Israel’s north and the non-Shiite communities across Lebanon’s south.