Donald Trump take no prisoners when he attacks what he perceives to be nasty media attacks on him. It may not be pretty when he does it, but it is effective, and unfortunately often true when he frequently castigates some media outlets as being fake media. JD Vance is more calm, reserved, and thoughtful, but willing to put the media in it’s place too. The media is not a minor player. They are a critical part of every election campaign. In the end, the handling of the media by JD Vance may prove to be one of the most important facets of a Trump victory in the rustbelt States.
The Presidential election, like many before it, will probably hinge on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the rust-belt, and North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona across the country. It is very hard to see how this election will be anything but a very close election. Neither candidate seems able to lock up more than 46-47% of the electorate in any swing state, and there are many factors swinging voters in different directions in nearly every State.
The choice of VP candidate is often underrated and coined as a non-factor by many pollsters. But there are many intangibles that each VP candidate often brings. Hillary Clinton’s choice of Tim Kaine did very little to help Hillary Clinton, but Donald Trump’s choice of Mike Pence made his out-of-the-box candidacy in 2016 a little more acceptable to the conservative wing of the Republican party. In close elections like the 2016 election, slight perception issues mattered alot. Donald Trump won the rustbelt States, but it was very close. Tim Kaine did not help Hillary Clinton in that area. Mike Pence gave voters the sense of security that Donald Trump deserved their vote and he probably helped bring tens of thousands of voters out to vote that would have otherwise stayed home.
JD Vance is a younger, reasonable sounding, yet still out-of-the-box version of Donald Trump. And he is exactly the kind of person the rustbelt voters feel most comfortable with. The failed assassination attempt in Pennsylvania will also help bring people out to vote for Donald Trump.
Kamala Harris has the advantage of a fawning media, an impressively unified Democrat Party, and the excitement for many of voting in the first female President of the United States. But the JD Vance effect, Hispanic voters, and enough male Black voters feeling the financial pinch will probably push Donald Trump into the Oval Office for another 4 years.
The odds are looking now like the first female President will be Nikki Haley in 2028 or 2032.