With Israel’s invasion into Rafah imminent, Canada has become the first NATO member to freeze arms shipments to Israel.
The move was a result of an agreement with Trudeau’s leftwing NDP and other non coalition parties that equally hate Israel. Canada’s arms shipments to Israel have been negligible so what is really going on? This vote and its passing did not happen out of the blue, but was rather timed with Schumer’s anti-Netanyahu speech to send a message to Israel – “stop now or else.” Meaning the US is sending a message through its leftwing allies in Ottawa. The question now is whether Washington will do the same thing as Canada.
The answer is both no and yes.
While Bernie Sanders would be overjoyed, Biden’s team wouldn’t dare bring the question of an arms embargo to Congress where it would be voted down in a landslide. Israel’s support in Congress remains very high. Rather, the administration will use backchannels at the Pentagon and State Department to begin to slow walk shipments. This slow walking has already begun as reports have indicated that the IDF has had to ration its munitions and save them for an expected war with Hezbollah.
Given Israel’s immediate arms needs, it does not have time to rely on only self manufacturing – it must make up for the shortages now. In 2022 the following countries were the largest weapons’ importers for Israel: United States ($375M), India ($48.4M), and South Korea ($8.06M).
With the US shipments of necessary munitions slipping there is only one logical short term solution – India. The Israel-India alliance has grown over the years since Modi took power. India’s battle against radical Islam as well as its rivalry with China, it is a natural partner for Israel to pivot to as a backup.
Whether under Biden or a future Democrat, America’s days as a trusted ally appear to be waning. It is time for Israel to not only produce its own munitions, but begin to procure a new supply for immediate use, and for that it must look eastward.
