Since the fall of Syria one thing has been clear, the biggest winner has been Turkey. With that win, Erdogan has increased his antagonistic statements against Israel. Not only that, he continues to crush the Syrian Kurds and increases his alliance with Islamist HTS who now controls Damascus.
Despite a continuing stream of statements flowing from the west that Erdogan’s verbiage should be regarded as empty rhetoric for the masses, one thing Israel has learned from October 7th is believe your enemies when they say they want to kill you. Erdogan has always said he wants to “free palestine” and conquer Jerusalem. Now that he essentially controls Western Syria except for the two Russian bases in Latakia and Tartus and the Haroun region which is made up of the Golan, Daraa, and the As Sweida governates, his dreams of restoring the Ottoman empire have come closer.
In a show of strength that Erdogan does in fact mean business, Erdogan’s son Bilal led a rally two days ago with the goal of showing support for Turkey conquering Jerusalem. This is not the first time Bilal has backed his father’s anti-Israel agenda.
The Nordic Monitor wrote about Bilal’s antisemitic views in an article published in August: “In an interview during a rally he led on August 3 to protest the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Bilal Erdogan described Israel as being driven by what he referred to as a “deviant ideology” and labeled Jews as a race condemned by God. He alleged that Jews see themselves as the world’s masters and, as a result, believe they have the right to claim the lives and properties of others.”
All of this shows that Erdogan’s speeches declaring his coming liberation of Jerusalem are not to be belittled, but rather taken seriously. While Turkish forces are currently attempting to eradicate the Kurdish led SDF, it is clear that their next stop will be Israel. It is for this reason that the IDF was ordered to move into Syria and establish a far reaching security zone. Israel is also flirting with supporting the Kurds in the north of Syria in order to expand their ability to drain Erdogan of resources before he moves south.
Expect both Turkey and Israel to continue to make moves in Syria. Israel will increase its partnership with the Kurds and the Druze with a potential announcement in support of a Kurdish State. Israel will also move further east into Syria in order to create a larger buffer zone.
Turkey will continue to use the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish proxy to push back on the USA backed SDF in hopes of extinguishing Kurdish desires for a Syrian Kurdistan. With Trump looking to pull back from the Middle East, expect his team to empower Israel to back the Kurds in their fight. If that alliance can grow and be nurtured, Erdogan may yet be stopped well before he is capable of doing serious damage to Israel and the region’s minorities.