WhatsappFor weeks now we are at the edge of our seats expecting a full blown war between Israel and Hezbollah, but so far nothing. True, there has been a raising of tensions between the two sides especially after the elimination of Hezbollah’s number two and of course yesterday’s preemptive strike that according to Israeli sources wiped out 6,000 projectiles before they ad a chance to be launched, but so far nothing has exploded into the expected full scale war we assumed it would. Why?
Hezbollah may have tens of thousands of well trained fighters and a 150k missile arsenal, but Nasrallah, unlike the Ayatollah’s will have to pay the price for any misadventure he may put himself in on behalf the Islamic Republic in Iran’s desire to end Israel’s existence.
Right there is the Achilles heel to the entire proxy strategy Iran developed over the years. Sure, all of the Iranian proxies are dependent on Iran, but the strategy also requires the proxy to be interwoven with its host country. Hezbollah needs to constantly strike a balance in Lebanon between freedom fighter for Shiites and a pragmatic governing force that has the becaking of a critical mass of people in Lebanon. especially southern Lebanon.
Given all of this, Nasrallah appears to be trapped. He cannot launch a war against Israel or risk being flattened and at the same time he cannot pull back from the border as resolution UN 1701 requires or he risks appearing weak. The ball is essentially in Israel’s court to either invade and finish off Hezbollah’s ability to batter Northern Israel or remain in. a defensive position.
Given what is at stake for the 100k civilians who have been displaced from their homes in Northern Israel, Israel should have invaded already. Excuses have been tossed around for a while why this hasn’t happened. Anything from lacking ammunition to not enough manpower have been raised as reasons for Israel’s lack of initiative in Northern Israel. None of these are the real reason.
Israel is not going in take on Hezbollah, because ultimately by doing so would trigger a cascading of events which would lead to a serious regional war and perhaps push the globe into WW3. Russia, China, and Iran have a defense pact with one another. A land war between between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon would drag in Syria, Turkey, Russia, and Iran directly, with China in a supporting role.
The US knows this and this is why it has moved a third of its naval assets to the region with more on the way. Once Israel joined CentCom (the US Central Command) during Trump’s time in office, any regional war will undoubtedly bring in the USA as it appears to be doing.
The US knows that Israel cannot hold back forever and is preparing for the type of war that is far bigger than just Israel, but rather something global. Make no mistake. This is the real reason why hostage negotiations are taking a long time. There will be no deal, but the yes is buying time because it knows something big is coming and it is coming fast.
Israel will go into Lebanon, but it will not just be Hezbollah it is fighting, it may be the entire pro Iranian axis and even more countries all at once. The US may not want a regional war during an election campaign, but like anything else, it has far less control than most assumes. Israel’s war is fast becoming the pathway to the ultimate global struggle between the West and the ascending China, Russia, Iran, and North Korean axis.
Ultimately, Israel is ready, but the US wants to make sure the conflagration only begins when it’s own forces are positioned correctly.
