WhatsappTrump’s sudden announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran surprised many and it did not take long for violations to pile up. At 10:20am Iran fired a couple of ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israel to prepare to continue to strike regime assets across Tehran. When President Trump found out that he was not able to bring peace he responded – not by blaming Iran, but by blaming Israel.
In a phone call with Bibi Netanyahu just before Israel was about to strike Iran after it violated the ceasefire, Trump was able to talk Netanyahu into only a light bombing. So will the ceasefire hold? Probably. Iran is depleted and banged up and most important revealed to be far more vulnerable than most in the region thought. True, they were able to inflict damage on civilian areas in Israel, killing four this morning in a face saving barrage at Beer Sheva in the south, but they were not able to bring Israel to its knees.
Israel is now the undisputed regional power and has flipped what was the Shia Crescent that stretched from Tehran to Beirut back at the Ayatollahs, with Israel bale to extend its reach all the way into the capital of Iran.
From the beginning of the war President Trump urged Israel not to take out the Ayatollah. Under no circumstance did the President want a regime change. Publicly Prime Minister Netanyahu appeared to agree with him. However, it was clear that Israel hoped to weaken the regime to the point of collapse; something Trump would not tolerate. This was the real reason why President Trump ordered the attacks on Iran’s nuclear installations. If he had not done that, Israel would have continued to degrade the regime until the point of collapse. By taking the installations out, Trump was able to convince the Israelis to sign onto a ceasefire with Iran.
This also explains why he was upset at Israel for hammering the IRGC headquarters hours before the ceasefire was set to take place. The Prime Minister’s Office stated: “The ceasefire was set for 07:00 this morning. At 03:00, Israel forcefully attacked in the heart of Tehran, struck regime targets and eliminated hundreds of Basij and Iranian security forces personnel.” Taking this sort of action had nothing to do with nuclear program or ballistic missiles, but served only to undermine the regime’s stability. This of course got Trump angry, but for Israel was necessary in order to set up the next phase of its war with Iran.
From Overt To Covert War
Given Trump’s ceasefire, Israel’s next moves will not be out in the open nor do they need to be. With the regime crippled and weak, opposition forces aided by Israel can begin to make moves against the regime. For years Israel has used the porous border between Iran and Iraq that runs through Kurdish areas to infiltrate Iran. With the regime weaker than ever, this border area can be used to bring aid and military supplies into Iran to help the regime’s opposition topple the Ayatollahs.
Yet, backing regime opponents can only happen if there is a real desire from the people on the ground to topple regime. So far none of the opposition figures or groups have made their intentions public.
So Did Trump Flinch?
Trump’s ceasefire deal is based on the assumption that it is better to have the devil you know than the devil you don’t. The Ayatollah may be evil, but a weakened regime without nuclear weapons is only a threat to itself. Besides that, Trump needs the Ayatollahs in power to force Israel and Saudi Arabia to sign a normalization agreement. Without a common enemy neither Israel nor the Saudis have a reason to normalize with one another.
The challenge with this approach is that the radical Islamists that control Iran will never let go of their ambitions for regional and eventually global dominance if they are left in power. Iran is no Cuba. The Ayatollahs believe that it is their mission to bring the 12th Imam back by bringing chaos and destruction to the world.
Trump’s yearning to quiet the region so he can focus on American domestic issues makes sense in a world that is far less interconnected. The Ayatollahs will not just simply quiet down. They will continue to create chaos in the region. Trump’s logic is that Israel can take care of that problem from now on.
However, evil is evil and allowing it to fester and develop and ultimately export its violent and delusional ideology outward is a gamble no one should take – especially not Israel.
Israel has now been left with a region that has witnessed the Jewish people’s courage and might. Similar to 1967, the 12 Days War will go down in history as a miraculous victory for Israel over its sworn enemy. However, unlike 1967 Israel must capitalize on this moment by solidifying its gains in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon, and ensure a far different regime takes over Iran whether Trump likes it or not.
