Accorder to Israel’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, Yahya Sinwar is on the run. There is good reason that Gallant is telling the truth since the IDF has continued to make steady gains. Despite the resurgence of Hamas in the Northern Gaza, the IDF has crushed Hamas in Khan Yunis and is closing in on Rafah, the last unconquered Arab city in Gaza.
Rafah happens to lie on the border of Egypt which makes the IDF’s job very complicated in taking the city. There are also millions of Gazans there who left the Northern part of the Strip in the beginning of the war. If the fighting intensifies in Rafah, the Gazans there may try to bust through the Egytian border, creating a chaotic situation, where the world may see millions of Gazans pour into the Egyptian Sinai.
Yahya Sinwar may even try to spark this event by having his own operatives blow a hole into Rafah, which would cause a crisis between Egypt and Israel. Egypt has warned that any breech of the border will draw them into the war and break the peace agreement between the two countries.
While this may seem far fetched, we have to remember that Sinwar’s goal here is to destabilize the region in the hopes that Israel can be brought to its knees. Despite Israel’s gains, Sinwar’s plan appears to be working. With Rafah now in Israel’s sites, expect the unexpected.