Iran knows what Bibi knows – Iran has no effective air defensive capability against the Israeli Air Force. Yes, Iran can still shoot some of their ballistic missiles and wreak havoc on parts of the State of Israel. But they will pay the price, and this time, they know that it could be fatal.
Israel showed the world and especially Iran what happened to the Hizbullah when Sheikh Nasrallah pounded Israel time and again for months while Israel slugged it out street after street in Gaza. Nasrallah ended his own life watching Bibi speaking at the UN while successive bunker buster bombs buried him and his closest deputies. The Ayatollah knows that this may be his fate too if he decides to carry out his threats against Israel. They understand the use of force in Iran. It is the universal language of dictators and terrorists.
The Iranian dictatorship is struggling to hold on, but has shown a distinct willingness to suppress it’s own people, including via mass arrests and mass killing of protesters. In a few years, the scope of the killings will become public. They may succeed in the short term at clearing the streets. But, Iran is now building up a major cadre of thousands of disgruntled Iranians who will be planning a coup from within the Army ranks. It may take years, but the Iranian dictatorship is now on a path that will lead to it’s downfall.
Both Israel and the United States know that it would be better if Iran’s dictatorship fell from within. A knockout of the leadership could even play into the hands of the radicals. That is why the measured approach of weakening the Iranian leadership coupled with crippling sanctions that increase internal resentment of the dictatorship is probably the preferred choice of the State Department and the leadership of Israel.
But it is indeed true that when Netanyahu threatens, Iran listens. Two years ago, it seemed like Iran had Israel surrounded with attacks weakening Israel from the south, north, and even Yemen from the east. Iran was preparing to deliver the massive blow as a follow up to the Hamas, Hizbullah and Houti attacks. But terrorists often are terrible at coordinating with other terrorist groups and Hamas, Hizbullah, Houti, and Iran did a terrible job coordinating which allowed Israel to regroup and effectively knock out one group after the other. Today, it is Iran’s leadership that feels the heat from threats from Israel. And Iran also knows that if they attack Israel and Bibi responds in force, they will be handing Netanyahu yet another term as Prime Minister on a silver platter.
It is indeed a new world in the Middle East.