WhatsappIsrael’s incursion into Lebanon last night was fast and to the point - taking out a Hezbollah operative in the village Blida in southern Lebanon. This has been the accepted mode of operation since the ceasefire went into effect between Lebanon/Hezbollah and Israel ten months ago. Israel gets to attack Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon as long as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) refuses or lacks the capabilities to do so.
So far, this tacit understanding has held, but after last night’s push into Lebanon by the IDF (the Israeli army still has five bases in southern Lebanon), the Lebanese president suddenly ordered the LAF to fortify its positions in Blida.
This change of strategy by Lebanon’s President is surprising and risks upsetting what has been seen as a stable ceasefire on Israel’s northern border. Even Lebanon’s non-Hezbollah Shiites are surprised Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun ordered the LAF south.
The Lebanese Shiite journalist, Nadim Koteich (CEO of Sky News), said the following: “Under the current conditions, the president’s call is not heroism but a dangerous complication of the situation. The restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty begins first and foremost with the disarmament of Hezbollah and the dismantling of Hezbollah’s toxic connection to the state; otherwise, every bullet fired from southern Lebanon will harm Lebanon first and foremost.”
Ever since the Lebanese civil war that saw Yasser Arafat’s PLO rile up Muslim forces against the Christian population there, Lebanon has never been the same. Israel entered that war as well, and although eventually victorious against Hezbollah this past year, Aoun’s decision reflects something far more problematic. No matter how much the Shiite terror organization is degraded, it still poses a serious threat to Lebanon and Israel. President Aoun’s order shows that he is scared of Hezbollah rising again and retaking control of Lebanon.
Without Israel’s full seizure of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River and possibly the Awali River, true peace will remain elusive.
