WhatsappThe Trump administration assumed that the Gaza ceasefire would already be moving to phase two, which would see Hamas disarm and the “vaunted” International Stabilization Force take over the Hamas-controlled 47% west-Gaza. Yet, despite all the pressure from the Trump administration, phase two remains elusive.
One of the biggest reasons the deal has not moved forward is the opposition to including Turkish troops in Gaza voiced not only by Israel, but by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Whether Turkey is driving Hamas’ intransigence or it is being driven organically and Turkey merely seeks to capitalize on it, one thing is for sure: Trump sees Turkey as a vital part of the ISF.
One US official reportedly told left-leaning Axios: “The Turks were very helpful in getting the Gaza deal, and [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s bashing Turkey has been very counterproductive. We are aware of the Israeli concerns and are working to create something that can achieve stability and that both sides can find acceptable,” the official added.
Turkey is banking on its forces being included in Gaza at the end. If so, expect Hamas to disappear suddenly and either reappear as Turkish soldiers or melt away, having performed their task of giving Erdogan the type of leverage he has needed to get a foothold in the Jewish homeland.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain the biggest opposition to Turkey, stemming from their visceral hatred of the Muslim Brotherhood. While Trump seems to love Erdogan and fancies his newfound friendship with the Emir of Qatar, he is not about to destroy the Abraham Accords by scaring away the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Without their acquiescence to Turkey’s direct involvement, Trump may allow the current stalemate to stay for a while. After all, the war is essentially over, and Israel has far more control of Gaza than at any time since 1994, when it handed it over to Arafat’s PA.
Saudi Arabia may want Israel to pull out of Gaza in public statements, but in reality, the crown prince, MBS trusts Israel in Gaza far more than Erdogan or the Qataris. With Trump distracted by Venezuela and Russia, as well as China and a weakening economy, he may be willing to count his win in Gaza as enough without pushing for more. Anything else will be a gamble with little or no return.
