WhatsappHamas’ response to the ceasefire deal has reportedly been rejected by mediators as being “unacceptable.” Egypt and Qatar have reportedly told Hamas to come back with something more realistic.
So is the ceasefire happening? Probably not. Hamas cannot agree to anything that leaves the IDF in anything but the perimeter as well as leaving the US backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) intact. Since the US and Israel are adamant on these two items, Hamas is essentially stuck.
So if there is no ceasefire, then what’s next?
Israel will move in for the kill, albeit treading very carefully not to cause Hamas to kill the hostages. The idea is quite simple. The IDF will take most of the land in and around three areas – Nuseirat, Deir al-Balah, and certain areas of Gaza City. This will force Hamas leaders (whoever they are at this point) in those three areas to cut a deal to leave the strip in exchange for the hostages.
Israel is planning the apply a military government over the entire Gaza Strip and if reports are correct, may even annex the northern part of Gaza as a buffer zone for Ashkelon and Sderot.
So will Hamas cave? As of today it doesn’t look like it, but the pressure may force them to do it. If not, their intransigence will ironically be the catalyst for Israeli sovereignty being applied in part of the Gaza Strip as well as total loss of Gaza as a singular political entity due to the Strip being broken up into various clans.
Israel is now in the home stretch of this long war and if all goes to plan will accomplish all three war goals despite the near insurmountable in being able to do so.
