The election in 2020 – like the previous elections – will be determined by the voting in no more than 10-15 States. New York and California will vote for the Democratic candidate – no matter what. Kentucky, Wyoming, North Dakota, and much of the mid-West will vote Republican no matter what. This election will most probably be determined more than anything else by the ground game in a few States – specifically Florida and the Rust Belt States from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin.
The Black community is spread around many parts of urban and rural America. In Pennsylvania, there is a large Black population in and around Philadelphia that largely did not show up to vote for Hillary Clinton as they did for Barack Obama. Will they show up to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala? Will there be a silent pro-Trump vote in the black community? .
Odds are that most of the people who voted for President Trump in 2016 will come back to vote for him again. The question is if the Obama voters who did not flip to Republican – but who stayed home – will come out to vote. Will this election basically be a referendum on Donald Trump? Probably. Will it be based on his handling of the coronavirus epidemic and the Black Lives Matter protests and riots? Probably. Will that drive many people out to vote? That is probably the 64 million dollar question. A good ground game may be the thing that will be looked at afterwards as what made the whole difference.