WhatsappThe reopening of the Rafah Crossing may be framed diplomatically as “progress,” but from Israel’s security perspective, it is a calculated risk — one that reintroduces vulnerabilities the Israel Defense Forces spent months fighting to close.
Yes, today’s activity is only a trial run. Yes, Hamas is not formally running the gate. But history offers a cold warning: Rafah has never been just a civilian crossing. It has been Gaza’s pressure valve — and Hamas’ smuggling artery.
Every opening creates opportunity.
Even with Palestinian Authority staff involved, including personnel linked to the Palestinian Authority, Israel faces three immediate downsides.
First: smuggling risk. Weapons, dual-use materials, cash, and operatives don’t move in convoys; they move in trickles. One compromised guard. One “humanitarian” shipment. One misfiled manifest. That’s all it takes. Rafah’s past is littered with these failures.
Second: intelligence blind spots. Once traffic resumes, volume becomes the enemy of precision. The more people and goods crossing daily, the harder it is to maintain airtight screening. Bureaucracy replaces battlefield clarity.
Third: political pressure. The moment Rafah is open, international actors will demand “more flow,” “faster processing,” “fewer checks.” Security standards inevitably erode under humanitarian optics. Israel has seen this movie before.
Even the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s announcement that no patients will cross today underscores the point: this is not about immediate relief — it’s about optics and governance experiments tied to the framework associated with Donald Trump.
And experiments at border crossings can get Israelis killed.
The uncomfortable truth is simple: a sealed gate is safer than a managed gate. Israel closed Rafah for a reason. Reopening it, even partially, trades certainty for hope.
Hope is not a security doctrine.
For Israel, Rafah isn’t a bridge. It’s a potential breach.
