WhatsappRumors that Syria is close to normalizing relations with Israel started even before Steve Witkoff announced a few days ago that he expected other countries in the region to soon sign deals with. Given some of the contacts between the two countries since President Trump met with Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (aka Abu Mohammad al-Julani) no one is surprised by the rumors.
Despite the optimism, there are many questions regarding what each side will have to give up. It has been reported that al-Shaara has stipulated the following conditions for normalization:
- Withdrawal from territories captured by Israel since January and from the buffer zone in the Golan
- A halt to Israeli airstrikes in Syria
- Security arrangements in southern Syria — particularly along the border and the tri-border area with Jordan
- US guarantees for the agreements and American support for the Syrian regime
In return for the above, Syria would recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights (not including the DMZ). If these are fixed positions then normalization is a non-starter. Israel does not appear ready to pull back from the peak of the Hermon or the Druze areas bordering the Golan. Given the weakness of the Syrian regime, Israel also has no reason to agree to the above.
Also, if normalization would occur, what about the Druze in the Sweida province further to the East? What would happen with their security? Or the Christians that have been violently oppressed by the new regime? These are questions that do not appear to have answers.
So is there a path forward to normalization? Either Trump’s team is naively optimistic or something else is going on. Perhaps al-Sharaa’s positions are just a starting point for negotiations and what we will see is an agreement that is more in between. Trump is trying to forge this deal and if he can it will be truly groundbreaking - perhaps more than all the other agreements. However, until the contours of the deal are far more concrete, the agreement appears to be an elusive dream instead of reality.
Reports also indicate that despite the pressure from Trump, al-Shaara’s own circle are wary of a full blown peace agreement at this point. They would prefer to have a series of security arrangement that would see Israel pull back. Given the fact that the Israeli point man for the current discussions National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi has already said Israel will never come down from the top of the Hermon, a series of unenforceable retreats on the side of Israel appear to be unlikely.
Just today Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said: ”Israel wants peace with neighbors like Syria and Lebanon — but the Golan Heights will always remain part of Israel.”
President Trump may want normalization between Syria and Israel, but given the fact he is dealing an unstable regime (let alone Jihadists) the chances of placating al-Shaara’s supporters and his Turkish backers are minimal. Once again, if President Trump pulls this off and if it is more than just a piece of paper then it would truly be revolutionary. For now, no one should hold their breaths in waiting for it to happen.
