WhatsappNow that it is becoming clear that the so-called “russian missiles” may have actually been fired from Ukraine and mistakenly hit Poland, the concern of a downward spiral into a World War III situation has dissolved – hopefully. But the concern that the War in Ukraine could turn into a world conflagration is very real.
As opposed to World War II, where a powerful country, Germany, was building up and preparing to invade it’s neighbors for years, World War I was more a war that began unexpectedly and turned into a killing ground for millions of people.
The main lesson to be learned from World War I, as Barbara Tuchman explained in her epic book, “The Guns of August,” is that if the stars line up in the wrong way, unexpected events can lead to a downward spiral of catastrophic proportions. None of the main players in World War I thought that the war would drag on for four years. Nobody thought that tens of millions of people’s lives would be upended. What was supposed to be a short-lived border skirmish led to a worldwide bloody battle.
Worse than the war itself, the settlement after the war left Europe in a place that would erupt in little more than 20 years into a greater world war that would be even more costly. It all started in Sarajevo, but the bulk of the battles were in the area that is today Poland and Ukraine.
What is needed to today is a prudent approach that focuses on keeping Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and the rest of Europe. But the #1 goal should be to avoid a spiral effect that would lead to the conflict spreading. A war in the Ukraine is the business of the United States of America. But it is not a cause that should lead to US troops confronting Russian troops.
Despite Joe Biden’s poor foreign policy record on Afghanistan, his response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion seems to be measured and reasonable. Let’s hope whoever is making the decisions in the Oval Office will keep things stable and keep things from spiraling.
