The line that will probably make or break the next election in the United States is the following line: “Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?” If that answer is a resounding yes, then no matter what, Donald Trump will probably win reelection. If the answer is no, then Donald Trump will probably lose the election. So, yes, it is the economy that will probably dictate who wins and who loses. But ads like this one will also make an impact.
The foreign policies of the Trump administration are a big plus, but we must look back a few elections to remember that the American people tend to vote their pocketbook more than anything else. In 1989 – 1990, the Soviet Union basically crumbled under the watch of George H. Bush. In 1990-1991, George H. Bush managed an extremely successful war against Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The number of American and allied casualties was very low, while the Iraqis were pushed back and suffered heavy casualties.
But, a little more than a year later, the economy tanked, and George H. Bush raised taxes against his original election pledge of “Read my lips – No new taxes.” People remembered the war on Iraq, but voted their pocketbooks. Bill Clinton did not win an outright victory, but he received more votes in enough important states to defeat George H. Bush. In retrospect, Ross Perot may have been the reason that George Bush lost. He siphoned off many votes from both sides, but more from the Republican party. But more than anything, a President needs to lead the economy if he wants to be reelected. Donald Trump is doing a good job at that, and therefore may get reelected.