WhatsappAccording to sources in Arab media, President Trump has supposedly promised Arab countries in the Middle East that he would not let Israel apply sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.
Despite these words supposedly uttered by Trump, Israel’s sovereignty movement, which is supported by over half of the country, should not assume that the president is necessarily prepared to stop Prime Minister Netanyahu from applying some form of sovereignty to Judea and Samaria. Netanyahu needs to calm the right flank of his coalition down. This is more than Itamar Ben Gvir and Betzalel Smotrich. More than half of the Likud wants some form of sovereignty now.
Over the last few weeks, various members of Israel’s ruling government have floated sovereignty plans. Minister of Finance Betzalel Smotrich released a plan to apply sovereignty to 82% of Judea and Samaria. Not to be outdone, Chaim Katz, also a minister in the government and Likud leader, demanded that the Prime Minister apply sovereignty to 100% of Judea and Samaria.
Discussions have surrounded the Jordan River Valley or even all of Area C. Netanyahu has historically shied away from bold moves like applying sovereignty to Judea and Samaria, but with his coalition in a precarious position and even his own party fed up with Netanyahu’s fickleness on this issue, Netanyahu knows he has to do something and this is where the double speak has come in handy.
President Trump’s insistence that he will not allow Israel to “annex Judea and Samaria” sounds definitive, but that statement can mean many things. Judea and Samaria is split into three areas. Area C is fully controlled by Israel, where 99% of the Jewish communities exist. Area B is much smaller and is jointly managed by Israel and the PA (Palestinian Authority), and Area A consists of only the Arab urban areas in Judea and Samaria. These areas are fully controlled by the PA, and it is where the majority of the “palestinians” live.
Trump wants Israel to end the war in Gaza and believes he can force Israel to do so. Netanyahu is willing to go along with it, but knows that without sovereignty, his cabinet will not agree to a deal to end the war with Hamas.
So what’s going on?
The key to understanding what’s coming next lies in reading Foreign Minister Gideon Saar’s comments today. In a meeting with his Italian counterpart, Israel’s Foreign Minister said Israel will not annex West Bank areas under Palestinian Authority control but is considering applying Israeli law to settlements.
Sa’ar stated, “There is no intention of even discussing the annexation of Palestinian Authority territories because we don’t want to control the Palestinians.”
“What can be discussed, but hasn’t yet been decided, is implementing Israeli law on the Israeli communities located there and not under the Palestinian Authority,” he explained.
This move will likely not spark a break with the US administration, but may be enough to keep the right from bolting the coalition. While not what many on the right want, if it includes all Jewish communities in Area C and State Land, then it is virtually the entirety of Area C. This move would give all Jewish areas the same status as pre-1967 Israel, meaning building approvals and future planning would be normalized. Most importantly, these communities would need 80 MKs or more to be uprooted, effectively ending the failed “Two-State Solution.”
Of course, the pitfalls with such a plan would leave Jewish communities within Judea and Samaria as virtual islands of sovereignty. Something of this sort was tried in Kosovo in the 1990s, with the Serb minority population living in their own semi-sovereign communities controlled by Serbia. That did not end well then, and the fear is that any half-baked move towards sovereignty that does not connect Jewish areas in a contiguous manner will open up a far more dangerous situation down the road. Imagine a constrained Israel being held back from defending Jewish communities in the future, if the world forces a “palestinian” terror state within the rest of the land not annexed to Israel.
Netanyahu and his government are aware of this, which is why there is a good chance that an alternative plan is in the works. One possibility is that major settlement blocks, as well as the Jordan River Valley at its widest point, that house an overwhelming amount of Jews, will have sovereignty applied to the entirety of these areas. Other places will have sovereignty applied inside the boundaries of their communities. Of course, there is no guarantee this is what is in the works, but some sort of move is, and with it, an end to the Oslo Accords is about to finally occur. This alone is perhaps the best outcome possible. However, global powers are prepared to force an increased isolation no matter what Israel does. If that’s the case, then its time to go all the way and finally push forward, with the “palestinian” cause dumped overboard forever.
