WhatsappAs Israel grapples with the aftermath of prolonged conflict, President Donald Trump’s ambitious 20-point Gaza peace plan—unveiled in early October 2025—presents a tantalizing yet treacherous lifeline. Hailed by the White House as a blueprint for a “deradicalized, terror-free zone” transformed into a prosperous enclave, the proposal envisions U.S.-led reconstruction, demilitarization of Hamas, and normalized ties with Arab states, without Israeli annexation.
From Jerusalem’s vantage, however, this deal is less a panacea than a high-stakes gamble, fraught with implementation hurdles, existential dangers, and the specter of Hamas’s defiance. Israeli leaders, from Prime Minister Netanyahu to security hawks in the Knesset, view it through a lens sharpened by decades of broken ceasefires and October 7’s scars.
The foremost challenge lies in enforcement. The plan’s core pillar—Hamas’s complete disarmament and dissolution of its military wing—demands intrusive verification mechanisms, potentially involving U.S. and international monitors patrolling Gaza’s labyrinthine tunnels and borders. Yet, Israel’s military intelligence, the IDF, warns of “verification pitfalls”: Hamas’s history of clandestine rearmament via Iranian smuggling routes renders on-site inspections a logistical nightmare. Who foots the bill for sustained U.S. troop deployments, estimated at billions? And how does Israel retain veto power over border controls without being accused of sabotage? Domestic critics, including settler lobbies, decry the plan’s vagueness on Gaza’s governance post-Hamas, fearing a power vacuum exploited by jihadist splinters like Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Reconstruction amplifies these risks. Trump’s vision of a “Middle East Riviera”—with desalinated water plants, luxury resorts, and tech hubs—hinges on $50 billion in Gulf funding funneled through a U.S.-administered trust. Israeli economists applaud the economic spillovers, from job creation curbing militancy to enhanced trade corridors. But pitfalls abound: Aid diversion has long sustained Hamas’s war machine; without ironclad Israeli oversight, concrete and steel meant for homes could rebuild rocket launchers. The Sharm el-Sheikh summit exposed these fissures, yielding only a skeletal first-phase ceasefire amid Hamas’s foot-dragging on disarmament deadlines. Jerusalem fears “mission creep,” where U.S. pressure for rapid rebuilding erodes Israel’s security red lines, echoing the Oslo Accords’ unfulfilled promises.
The gravest danger emerges if Hamas outright refuses to disarm—a scenario Israeli strategists deem probable, given the group’s October 5 deadline rebuff. Trump’s threat of “all hell” breaking loose implies escalated U.S.-backed operations, but from Israel’s perspective, this could boomerang. A defiant Hamas, emboldened by Qatari cash flows, might launch sporadic attacks, dragging Israel into a grinding attrition war while eroding international sympathy. Domestically, it could fracture the fragile unity government, with far-right factions demanding unilateral buffer zones in Gaza, risking ICC indictments. Globally, refusal might isolate Israel further: Arab normalizers like Saudi Arabia could withhold Abraham Accords expansions, and Europe might revive boycott campaigns, painting Jerusalem as the intransigent party.
Worse, partial compliance—Hamas retaining light arms under a “national guard” guise—invites catastrophe. Intelligence leaks suggest Iranian proxies could flood Gaza with drones, turning Trump’s “prosperity zone” into a launchpad for hybrid warfare. Israel’s response? Likely preemptive strikes, inviting accusations of derailing peace and straining U.S. alliances. As one Tel Aviv analyst quipped, “This isn’t Deal of the Century; it’s Russian Roulette with extra chambers.”
Ultimately, for Israel, Trump’s plan tests a bitter truth: Peace without preponderance of power is peril. Success demands U.S. guarantees beyond rhetoric—perhaps joint IDF-U.S. commands and veto rights on aid. Failure, should Hamas balk, risks not just renewed bloodshed but a strategic quagmire where Israel’s deterrence crumbles. In this shadow dance, Jerusalem must tread warily, lest optimism blind it to the abyss.
