WhatsappBy now everyone who is paying attention saw or heard President Trump drop the F-bomb in relation to Israel and Iran when it came to the fragile ceasefire he imposed. Why did Trump claim Israel broke the ceasefire when the timeline clearly showed they did not? Some pundits have chalked it up to Trump throwing a fit or trying to placate his non-interventionist wing of the MAGA movement by showing he is not “controlled by Israel,” but in truth none of that makes sense. So what is really going on here?
Below is President Trump’s post on Truth Social while Israeli pilots were about to attack Iran for a blatant ceasefire violation.
In classic Trump, the President ordered another country who is sovereign to stand down in the face of their arch enemy. Remember, this is already after Iran’s ceasefire violation. Why would President Trump post this? The answer lies in what Israel took out just after it and Iran supposedly agreed to a ceasefire.
The ceasefire was set to take place six hours later (some say 12 hours later) when Israel dropped 100s of munitions on key regime targets in Iran. One of these targets was the IRGC headquarters in Tehran. The strike killed hundreds of the IRGC Basij militia. The Basij militia is the key component of Iran’s grip on its citizens. More than a military faction, Basij represents a sort of fraternity of indoctrinated individuals spread throughout the country.
In the past the Basij have been responsible for violently putting down many of Iran’s protest movements - most notably the 2009 election protests and Mahsa Amini protests os 2022-2023. The Basij are the forefront of religious coercion, employing violence to enforce Shia extremist standards.
Given the heinous nature of the Basij, why would President Trump care if Israel took out the leadership?
USA and Israel Are Not On The Same Page When It Comes To Iran
To understand this, one has to acknowledge that Israel’s goals and US goals in Iran, while overlapping are not in sync. President Trump has been emphatic since the ceasefire that he does not want regime change in Iran and while Israel has not publicly insisted that regime change was one of the key points of the 12-Day war, Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted that it may be the result of Israel’s actions.
Israel understands that the Islamic Republic of Iran is an existential threat to Israel and as long as it is in power the threat of a nuclear attack and ballistic missile threat on Israel remains. Netanyahu and Israel’s leadership believes the only way to ensure this threat never arises again is to topple the regime and replace it with one that is far more friendly to Israel. Taking out the Basij leadership is a critical step towards making that happen.
In fact the stirrings of regime change has already begun with the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi stating the following on X:
“My fellow compatriots, We are now moving to the final phase of our struggle. It will be hard. But the regime is weak. It is near collapse. Only we, the Iranian people, can end it. To the military—as you’re given orders to lash out at the people—stand down. This is your final chance. You are being watched. We will remember who stood with the people and who committed crimes against them. To the world—do not save this corrupt, crumbling, terrorist regime. At this historic moment, stand with the Iranian people. Shield them from the regime’s desperate backlash. Do not prop up a regime that will, soon again, turn its guns, missiles, and terror toward you. Do not fear. Be bold. Victory is in our hands.”
All of this begs the question, if the Iranian Regime won’t stop until they get a nuke and if they are predominate antagonist in the region, why is the US not supporting homegrown efforts to topple the Ayatollah and IRGC?
The Reason Trump Is Against Regime Change In Iran
No, Trump is not against regime change in Iran because of the following:
- His base doesn’t support it
- It will draw American Troops in
- It will lead to an unpredictable outcome
The above reason all sound plausible, but are incorrect. The main reason President Trump is against regime change in Iran is that he prefers autocratic leaders when dealing with foreign policy issues. Autocratic leaders are reliably predictable as long as they remain weak enough to manage. Furthermore, and this may seem counterintuitive, but Saudi Arabia would prefer the current regime in a very weakened state than a regime that is a constitutional monarchy.
Trump’s team has made a huge deal about a new Middle East they are building around the Abraham Accords. One of the biggest planks to that is a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This agreement will potentially achieve two things – full peace with the Sunni Arab world and Israel, sparking billions of dollars in cross investments and partnerships and more important to President Trump and the USA is a trading route unhindered from India to the Mediterranean that would run through to Saudi Arabia to the Israeli port in Ashdod (or a new one built in Gaza). Of course the main catalyst for all of this is the shared enemy of both the Arab Sunni states (minus Qatar) and Israel have in the current regime in Iran.
Regime change in Iran would upend all of this. It would reduce the need for using Saudi Arabia as the anchor in the Middle East for which everything would have to flow as it would set up a direct relationship between Israel and Iran the way it was before the 1979 revolution. A direct Iran-Israel partnership would be unstoppable and add India into the mix as well as Azerbaijan, the New Middle built around Saudi Arabia would be left behind.
President Trump has staked a lot on his partnership with the Saudis and to change gears now would collapse a lot of the deals that he has hoped to push forward. In his mind, better the current Iranian regime, always there and dangerous, but kept at bay rather than reshuffling the deck altogether.
Israel Is Going In For The Kill
Israel’s war with the current Iranian regime is now moving to a more focused phase with the goal of complete regime change. Israel has not spent decades building up its intelligence apparatus and covert operations capabilities inside Iran to just set them aside because President Trump wants some sort of regional calm. Israel’s government and a majority of Israelis are no longer that naive to put their safety in the hands of President Trump.
Expect opposition leaders abroad to continue to push for revolution. Dissidents on the ground will no longer just be protestors, but Israeli trained militias with full backing from the Mossad and IDF. Weapons transfers into Iranian Kurdish areas as well as Azeri majority areas will increase. Already there are disturbances on the streets and rumors that members of the main military (not IRGC) have defected. Reuters reported that drones attacked IRGC forces in Tabriz.
In the coming weeks covert operations will ramp up and the current regime may not be able to quell the growing rebellion as it becomes more and more revealed. Trump may not want regime change for all of the above reasons listed, but he will welcome it and his administration will adjust. A free Iran will radically change the Middle East and the world. Netanyahu may be despised internationally by many on the right and left, but it will be his leadership and the determination of the IDF and Mossad that rids the world of a regime that not only brutalizes its own citizens, but spreads chaos and destruction throughout the region and the world.
