WhatsappGas, money, control of shipping,and world influence. Russia is no longer what it used to be when it stood at the heart of the Soviet Union. But it is still a behemoth with an enormous amount of gas and nuclear weapons. The power that gas and oil afford the Soviet Union should not be underestimated. Today, as so much of the world is spending so much more at the pump than just a year ago, this has become crystal clear for all to see.
But it is not only about gas and oil. As many of Russia’s nuclear weapons are fast becoming obsolete, and the world is moving in the direction of becoming less dependent on gas and oil, Vladimir Putin, a man with very little moral concerns, realized that time is not on his side. His population is also rapidly aging.
And especially with the United States being a temporary paper tiger with an Executive Branch being run by a committee of people coaching the struggling Joe Biden, Putin decided to act. What Russia has to gain is a short-term stranglehold on large parts of the European and world economy. Grain and oil are both vital resources that people cannot live without. So, along with nuclear arms saber rattling, Putin has found a way to intimidate the West into inaction against Russian aggression. Putin is looking to permanently gain more control of natural resources in Ukraine and other former members of the Soviet Union. This will insure that Russia will expand it’s influence in the coming decades and not fade away from it’s powerful position on the world stage.
However, the weakness of Putin’s gamble is that Russia needs Europe and so much of the world to be dependent on Russian oil. Otherwise, Russia’s main economic resource will weaken more quickly than many realize. So, yes, Russia has the West in a tight spot. But the West has Russia in a tight spot also. Sustained sanctions against Russia will hurt Russia too.
The key to Russia’s economic success while aggressively invading Ukraine is the continued economic cooperation from China. That is why the key to containing Russia is a triangulation policy that the US and the EU need to employ vis-a-vis Russia and China. Henry Kissinger is right on this issue. Once Russia and China’s interests are not aligned, they can each be contained. Today, the main problem is that China and Russia cooperating is indeed a powerful threat to the free world.
