WhatsappHow important is the war between Russia and Ukraine in the 2024 election? It is probably not one of the top 3 issues. But it is most certainly one of the top foreign policy issues facing the world today, and it will come up repeatedly in interviews and debates. On this issue, Donald Trump stands out from the other Republican candidates with his controversial, yet rather logical angle of staying out and forcing a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine. Of course, Donald Trump does not use the word “force.” But that is almost certainly what he means to do if he is reelected.
The standard line on the Russia-Ukraine war espoused by many in the Republican Party is a pro-Ukraine and anti-Russian line. It is one that includes setting clear red lines, such as the Polish border or perhaps Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons. If either of these are breached, there are many Republicans who would vote for the United States to join a NATO coalition that would declare war in order to stop the Russian aggression. This is indeed a possibility that should not be dismissed. It is indeed a frightening thought.
It was not just World War I – that started in the same part of the world – where some border disputes escalated into a massive war. This phenomenon occurred in Korea, Vietnam, and other regions in the world, where seemingly minor wars turned into major conflicts that left massive devastation.
Donald Trump may not be a student of history who will base his decisions on sound precedent learned from the mistakes and successes of his predecessors. But the truth is that Trump’s hunches and reflexes on foreign policy have been excellent. His viewing of all major foreign policy issues as situations that require deal making in order to achieve goals is actually quite on the mark.
Given the proper assurances and incentives, Putin would indeed decide to hold his troops and accept limited victory. Zelensky would be thrilled to get out of the horrific situation Ukraine is in with some major financial incentives to rebuild. Donald Trump knows this and would probably agree to reject any more encroachment of NATO into Ukraine or Eastern Europe in order to assure Putin. And Trump would probably offer a massive financial incentive to Zelensky to agree to forego parts of Ukraine, specifically some of the port cities, that were invaded and destroyed by Russia.
Trump is a big talker. But his record on foreign policy with Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia is actually rock solid. He should not be dismissed on these matters at all. It may actually prove the difference between him and other Republican candidates and may propel him to victory in the Republican primaries.
