Let nobody be fooled about the present situation in the Southeast China Sea. It is a big deal and President Biden and his advisors know it. China wants to take back Taiwan. They have always thought that Taiwan is part of there country. But now they see a nearly perfect opportunity to restore Taiwan as part of China. They know that Joe Biden will do anything he can to avoid conflict with China for fear of a small conflagration expanding into World War III. China is right about this and will probably choose some time in the next two years to strike. And yes, it is a big deal.
An astute columnist once pointed out that Taiwan is to semiconductors what Russia is to gas and oil. Semiconductors help power computers worldwide and Taiwan’s contribution is so critical in this field that if things were to change rapidly, it would send massive ripple effects across the entire world. But there are major differences between Russia invading Ukraine and China invading Taiwan.
First off, Russia and Putin do not have time on their side and therefore decided to act before it was too late. China always seems to have time on her side as she becomes more and more powerful every day. Additionally, China’s army and navy, despite being very powerful, will have to endure enormous casualties if they invade Taiwan. Taiwan is truly armed to the teeth and will fight to the end. They would rather die than live under Chinese domination.
Can China endure the internal turmoil that a prolonged battle would bring? That remains to be seen. But one thing that does not scare China much are American sanctions. The sanctions the West clamped on Putin did not bring down Russia as China kept the oil and gas orders going. The same would be the case with China. Some sanctions would hurt, but Chinese influence is so great and Russian collusion with China continues, so the sanctions would hurt but not cripple China. Too many customers of China cannot afford to boycott China.
But China, under it’s powerful leader, Xi Jinping, dream of establishing China as the most dominant country in the world, and see the timing while Joe Biden is in the Oval Office as perfect. They are well on their way to deciding to invade Taiwan. Kamala Harris’ trip to the Philippines probably did not do much to dissuade China.